Could Iraqi Civil War Morph Into Regional War

Nawaf Obaid believes so.

If you’re interested in the situation in the Middle East, and in Iraq in particular, you should read the following commentary by Obaid, an avisor to the Saudi Arabian government, which appeared in the Washington Post yesterday.

One chief result of the USA deposition of Saddam’s government has been the rise of Iranian influence in Iraq, as the Shiite Iraqi majority has gained control of the Iraqi government, to the extent that there is an Iraqi government.

The Saudis, who share an Arabic heritage with the Iraqis and who are Sunnis, at some point will move into Iraq militarily, to one degree or another, to protect the Iraqi Sunni minority from the Shiite majority.

Should the Saudis find it necessary to do so, they will run up against the Iranians, who remember are not Arabs but, rather, Persians, and are overwhelmingly Shiites. As Obaid acknowledges in his commentary a Saudi/Iranian confrontation in Iraq could result in a regional war.

So lets give a big hand to Commander in Fact Darth Cheney and his merry band of Neofascist fellow travlers who launched the war, which has no point, other than to further Israeli policy that is.

Stepping Into Iraq

Saudi Arabia Will Protect Sunnis if the U.S. Leaves

By Nawaf Obaid

Wednesday, November 29, 2006; Page A23

In February 2003, a month before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, warned President Bush that he would be “solving one problem and creating five more” if he removed Saddam Hussein by force. Had Bush heeded his advice, Iraq would not now be on the brink of full-blown civil war and disintegration.

One hopes he won’t make the same mistake again by ignoring the counsel of Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that “since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited.” If it does, one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis.


Over the past year, a chorus of voices has called for Saudi Arabia to protect the Sunni community in Iraq and thwart Iranian influence there. Senior Iraqi tribal and religious figures, along with the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and other Arab and Muslim countries, have petitioned the Saudi leadership to provide Iraqi Sunnis with weapons and financial support. Moreover, domestic pressure to intervene is intense. Major Saudi tribal confederations, which have extremely close historical and communal ties with their counterparts in Iraq, are demanding action. They are supported by a new generation of Saudi royals in strategic government positions who are eager to see the kingdom play a more muscular role in the region.


To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks — it could spark a regional war. So be it: The consequences of inaction are far worse.



Filed under Blogroll, Iconoflatulence, Iraq, Politics

7 responses to “Could Iraqi Civil War Morph Into Regional War

  1. J

    The Saudis are already engaging the Shia in Iraq. They fund al Qaeda and supply many of their “terrorist”. Look for the Saudis to acquire a nuclear weapon, if they haven’t already, to counter the Iranians. It won’t be long until we all long for the good ole days of Saddam.

  2. I suspect most Iraqis have been longing “for the good ole days of Saddam” since they realized that the political hacks Bush appointed to lead the USA occupation administration were so utterly incompetent that they couldn’t even keep the lights on and potable water flowing.

  3. J

    Not sure about that, since most Iraqis are shia. Nevertheless, they were almost certainly better off under Saddam, at least from a practical standpoint.

  4. Have you eve read Riverbend’s blog “Baghdad Burning”? It provides a pretty good perspective of the Iraqi perspective, I think.

    Of course, for all I know, Riverbend is some guy in Kansas.

  5. Lindsay

    It’s the internets, after all….but Riverbend’s blog has been published now in two books, as well as receiving several literary awards. One would assume/hope that the publishers determined that she was who she says she is.

  6. Lindsay,

    Thanks for looking in and for yoru comment. I trust that the publishers did in fact authenticate Riverbend. My comment was with tongue in cheek.

    I read Riverbend regularly, as well as Juan Cole’s blog, to get waht I consider accurate information on the real situation in Iraq. Accuracy not available from reporters for the MSM who generally do not leave the “Green Zone”.

    Thanks again.

  7. Lindsay

    Absolutely–I agree. It’s only taken, what, nearly four years for the MSM to notice that gee, things really don’t seem to be going all that well, and that it could actually be…gasp!…a Civil War!!!

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